Time Series Analysis of Animal Bites Cases In Baguio City, Philippines

speaker: Assistant Professor Joseph Ludwin DC. Marigmen

In this paper, we aim to construct a time series model to forecast the animal bites cases reported in Baguio City in the 52-week period of 2025 using the historical weekly data from 2023 to 2024. Utilizing the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and the Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models, we acquire ARIMA(3,1,3)(0,0,1)[52] as the best-performing time series model, where it forecasts to report around 4,100 additional cases for the last 22 weeks of the year. This hinted a possibility that the annual animal bites cases in Baguio City may increase by around 6.8% compared to the same period in 2024. Proper anti-rabies vaccinations and care for animal pets are advised to avoid possible surge of recorded animal bites cases in the city. Furthermore, city government officials need to review policies and activities in controlling and preventing the spread of the disease.