Towards “Zero By 30”: Epidemiological, Temporal, And Spatial Modeling of Animal Bitesand Rabies Risk In Baguio City, Philippines

speaker: Prof. Dr. Rizavel Addawe

Animal bites and rabies remain major global health threats, predominantly affecting children and low‑income communities, and causing an estimated 59,000 deaths annually in Asia. Despite clear WHO guidance and national efforts, local implementation still depends on timely and reliable data analysis. Baguio City exemplifies this challenge: animal bite cases have significantly risen over the past decade despite ABTC efforts in mass dog vaccination. Existing local surveillance captures case counts; however, provides limited insights into species involved, high‑risk demographic groups, spatial clustering, seasonality, and the influence of weather. Without this information, resource allocation, risk communication, and vaccination campaigns cannot be fully optimized. This presentation will therefore showcase a comprehensive analytical framework that combines: (1) descriptive epidemiology of bite cases from 2018–2024; (2) advanced time series modeling, such as SARIMA and cointegration, to characterize trends, cycles, and relationships with environmental variables such as temperature and precipitation; and (3) GIS‑based spatial and spatio‑temporal analysis, including Moran’s I and hotspot mapping, to identify high‑risk barangays. The motivation is to move beyond routine reporting toward predictive, spatially explicit, and policy‑relevant analytics. This work is relevant as a transferable model for other cities aiming for “Zero by 30.” This will illustrate how routinely collected bite‑case data, when rigorously cleaned, modeled, and mapped, can inform targeted vaccination, community education, insurance utilization, and integrated One Health action. The session will highlight both methodological approaches and practical lessons for building data‑driven, collaborative rabies control strategies in resource‑constrained settings.